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Knoxville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Updated: 1:53 am EDT Jul 16, 2025
 
Today

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 99. Southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Chance
T-storms

Friday

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm.  Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
T-storms
Likely
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely then
Chance
Showers
Saturday

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm.  Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance
T-storms then
T-storms
Likely
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
T-storms
Likely then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday

Sunday: A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.  Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance
Showers then
Showers
Likely
Hi 93 °F Lo 75 °F Hi 93 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 91 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 99. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
 
A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
469
FXUS64 KMRX 161120
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
720 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Key Messages:

1. Scattered storms are expected this afternoon into the evening
with strong winds and localized flooding possible in some storms.

2. Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs rising into the
90s and heat index values around 100 degrees.

Discussion:

Currently early this morning, weak flow is in place aloft with broad
ridging and embedded shortwaves across much of the eastern U.S. A
shortwave is noted in the Great Plains with convection ongoing. A
weak tropical disturbance is also expected to move along the
northern Gulf. Overall, the pattern will remain fairly similar to
yesterday with weak flow aloft and hot and humid conditions. MLCAPE
of 1,500 to 2,000 J/kg can be expected again with nearly 0 shear.
This will continue the low-end threat for strong winds and localized
flooding. At the time of this discussion, convection is ongoing
across the mountains, and its coverage could enhance the flooding
threat for those areas today. However, many of the CAMs are limited
with coverage this afternoon and evening. Some activity may continue
overnight as we have seen this past night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through the
whole period. Strong winds and localized flooding will remain
possible within some storms.

2. Hot and humid conditions will also continue through the period
with highs reaching into the 90s across the Valley and heat index
values around 100 degrees.

Thursday through Saturday

At the start of the period, quasi-zonal flow will be in place with
500mb heights in excess of 5,920m. The weak tropical system
referenced in the short term period is expected to be moving into
southern Louisiana and Mississippi. A frontal boundary will also be
advancing towards the Ohio River Valley. This will continue the
summer pattern with weak flow aloft and similar thermodynamics as in
the short term period. Hot and humid conditions and diurnal
convection can be expected to continue. Better moisture (PWATs near
2 inches) will move into our area late in the week as the tropical
system dissipates and progresses northward. The front is likely to
weaken as it settles near the Ohio River Valley on Friday, which,
combined with increased moisture, will make the case for better
convective coverage. The frontal boundary will weaken on Saturday,
but elevated convective coverage can be expected due to remaining
impressive moisture. As in recent days, localized flooding and
isolated strong storms will remain possible.

Sunday through Tuesday

Sunday into early next week, general ridging is expected to prevail
across the eastern U.S. with some variations in the exact pattern
seen locally. Some sources are more aggressive with ridging
expanding from the south while others suggest increasing shortwaves.
Regardless, 500mb heights will remain above 5,900m, along with
abundant moisture in the area to support continued convection. Hot
and humid conditions will also persist, but the current data
suggests the region to remain below advisory criteria and in line
with typical July heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Will see scattered showers and storms around again especially this
afternoon/evening, and will include prob30 groups all sites
during time of highest probability. Outside of any convection,
will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. However, if
rain occurs at any site this afternoon or evening the chance for
fog/low cigs will be enhanced late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  75  95  76 /  30  20  40  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  75  93  74 /  40  40  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  73  93  74 /  50  30  50  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  70  89  70 /  40  50  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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